Ray Robison: Pointing out the obvious to the oblivious

Pakistan update

According to this article in Pakistan Daily Times:

Militants in several parts of the restive Swat district vacated their trenches on hilltops and disappeared on Tuesday, Daily Times has learnt. Rebel cleric Maulana Fazlullah’s loyalists had established trenches in the Dherai, Kooza Bandai, Bara Bandai, Nangolai, Charbagh, Khwazakhela and Pir Kalay areas of Swat. However, they vacated the areas on Tuesday morning and their current whereabouts are unknown, residents said. Locals believe the Taliban have fled the area under intense pressure from the military, which had been using artillery and gunship helicopters to target their positions in several areas of Swat and Shangla districts for the last few days. Meanwhile, Swat Media Centre spokesman Amjad Iqbal told journalists that a local resident had killed Taliban commander Khan Khitab, as people of the area were tired of the Taliban.

Things to keep in mind. This is a single source now I have quoted for two days. I like to mix it up, but they are the ones getting info out.

Also, for all I know, Musharraf could be writing these articles.

I don't bother quoting the numbers in these articles because they are most likely inflated.

However, I am seeing peeps from other sources that it is ON in Swat right now.

Locals tossing in to fight the Taliban would be a huge plus and reminiscent of the Anbar Awakening.

Christian Science Monitor has it as well:

Even as he remains publicly embroiled with the secular opposition, Pakistan's Gen. Pervez Musharraf's real war with militants is heating up – and far from public view. The outcome is pivotal to Pakistan's longer struggle with militancy.

This week, Pakistan's Army sent 15,000 ground troops into Swat, a scenic valley in the North West Frontier Province. Although a settled area barely 100 miles from the urbane capital, Islamabad, Swat is the stronghold of a Taliban-like extremist group boasting about 5,000 fighters.

At least 15 militants were reported killed since troops landed on Sunday, according to Agence France-Presse:

"The militants suffered heavy losses and their casualties were numerous," [local government spokesman Amjad] Iqbal said as government forces tried to dislodge the militants from bases in the district of Kabal and the nearby Shangla hills.

He said two rebel commanders loyal to hardline cleric Maulana Fazlullah -- who wants to introduce Islamic Sharia law in the region and preaches holy war against the government -- were killed.

Fighting in Swat has been escalating for weeks. But the skirmishes have ended in humiliating defeats for the Army, mostly because 3,000 paramilitaries – rather than actual soldiers – were sent to do the fighting. Many have surrendered without putting up a fight or have been captured and publicly executed.

snip

This week may mark a turning point. It is the first time that bona fide Army boots have been put on the ground. The move was quickly welcomed in editorials.

The Daily Times, an English-language daily in Pakistan, seemed to suggest that it was high time for such action:

Finally the army has begun its ground offensive in Swat after days of sniping at the Al Qaeda militants from its helicopter gunships, killing 35 on the first day.

This is a change from the humiliating reversals which the militants inflicted on the paramilitary personnel earlier on…

The News, another influential English-language daily, called on the government to exhibit a policy of greater resolve:

…[I]t is necessary to show that the state is determined to enforce its writ. This can be done by closing down the illegal radio stations that fuel passions and hatred, refusing to reach deals with militants and, at the same time, drawing ordinary people into the battle against extremists by offering them the benefits that a benevolent, caring state must be able to provide.

Washington is closely watching the developments as well, according to the Los Angeles Times.

U.S. officials are closely monitoring the situation in the northwestern district of Swat, a picturesque former princely state. Islamic militants, employing tactics used in the tribal borderlands, have overrun villages here, beheading security personnel and imposing their own harsh brand of Islamic law.

Western military observers consider the confrontation a pivotal one, possibly presaging a much wider push by Pakistani and foreign militants out of the largely lawless tribal belt along the Afghanistan border and into so-called settled areas, where Pakistan's federal government is supposed to have authority.

Associated Press has it from US Policy end:

This phase of creating a specialised anti-insurgency force has already been operationalised with around $52 million allocated last year and $92 million more in 2007 to the FC stationed in the restive North West Frontier Province and Balochistan.

Pentagon spokesperson Geoff Moreall said last week that the US was of the view that in Pakistan's tribal regions it was more effective to work with a locally recruited force than to work with the army. The latter is not viewed with the same respect in that part of the country as the FC, he added.

But the more dire aspect under consideration by desperate US military planners is raising, training and arming a Mujahideen force or militia from amongst ''friendly'' and ''soft'' Taliban from Pakistan's seven turbulent Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) adjoining Afghanistan, to counter the rampaging jehadis and radical Islamists.

The US has reportedly been encouraged by a similar strategy of recruiting local tribesmen being pursued in Iraq's Anbar province that is believed to be proving efficacious.

The reasoning is that being locally recruited, these militia members understand the enemy and hence are better equipped to neutralise the crippling insurgency.

Military analysts say the controversial plan appeared to be borrowing heavily from the British colonial administration's policy of raising local militias in the FATA from amongst local tribesmen with the fundamental assumption that they were better equipped to deal with their war-mongering brethren.

As I predicted in earlier this year, the US is trying to turn Taliban leadership against al Qaeda core leadership, is splitting the Taliban itself along tribal lines, to create a situation similiar to the Sunni flip in Iraq.

No guarantees here, but I predict success as long as the Maulana Falzur Rahman holds the MMA in check, which he will do since al Qaeda is trying to assassinate him. and as long as Musharraf pushes them out of Pakistani safehavens into the waiting arms of coalition forces in Afghanistan.

Internet Anthropologist has more

New Futurama today

Got the new Futurama movie out today. Quick review:

1. Contrived, tried to force in too many familiar characters, plot went all over the place, actually got a bit confusing believe it or not.

2. Worth the money if you are a big fan like me.

Factually inaccurate and "blame America" Wired article

Folks, go on over to this blog at Wired and let him have it:

As in Iraq, a pre-emptive war targeting potential terrorists has backfired. Thanks to the U.S. intervention, Somali fighters now have common cause with extremists in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and elsewhere. Don’t believe me? A couple days ago a Somali journalist showed me an anonymous text-message death threat he’d received, apparently from the nationalist insurgent group Al Shabab.

It was signed “Al Shabab = mujahideen.”  The local guerrillas had morphed into international jihadists.

His rap is that we caused the Islamic militants to magically come alive in Somalia when we helped Somalia by killing them off. He is way out of his league here. Al Qaeda and other groups were in there many years ago trying to take over. True, they failed, but that doesn't mean there wasn't still an Islamic militant strain already in place when we decided to help the Ethiopians take them out.

Utter display of ignorance over there at Wired, a true disappointment from a well regarded publication.

Latest Pakistan development

I predicted a few months back that Musharraf would team with Maulana Fazlur Rahman and his "old Taliban" (and Bhutto as well who turned out to be utterly worthless ) in a war against al Qaeda and "new Taliban" or young Taliban commanders supported by al Qaeda in taking over tribes. In other words, al Qaeda was trying to take over the Taliban with fighters redirected from Iraq.

According to the Pakistan Daily Times:

Editorial: Finally, boots on ground in Swat

Finally the army has begun its ground offensive in Swat after days of sniping at the Al Qaeda militants from its helicopter gunships, killing 35 on the first day. Since the army went into the Valley, there has been a steady growth in casualty among the outsider elements and their local supporters. This is a change from the humiliating reversals which the militants inflicted on the paramilitary personnel earlier on, forcing one to come to the conclusion that that phase in Swat had done much to undermine the confidence of the local population and given heart to the planners of Al Qaeda and its Taliban minions to act as if they owned Swat. The beheadings carried out by “foreign-looking” terrorists had nearly convinced the Swatis that a new government had actually come into being, pledging to institutionalise what they had always demanded as “justice without delay”.

These foreign looking fighters are al Qaeda. They are fighting along side the young Taliban leaders in Swat that are al Qaeda affiliates.

Again from the Daily Times:

One reason why the army delayed going into Swat could be linked to the MMA government of the NWFP which had to first “requisition” the operation. Peshawar had its own angle on Swat, perhaps looking at it as the first instalment of what it wanted to do to the rest of the province through its Hasba Bill. In May this year the MMA government had struck a nine-point “peace deal” with the local warlord Fazlullah in return for his pledge to let Peshawar handle the law and order situation in Swat. He had also agreed to close his centres of training for the militants, end acquisition and manufacture of weapons like the bombs, and had committed to providing troops [sic!] in operations mounted by the province against any “anti-state elements”.

This was, of course, a joke and an eyewash which no one, including the media, tried to question. Fazlullah was given permission to operate his FM radio stations from where he continued to warn the local population against flouting his so-called “sharia laws”. The federal government reacted to this by extending the operation of PEMRA to the PATA area which included Swat and thus rendered the agreement null and void.

I believe that what this is saying is that the MMA lead by Gen. Secretary Maulana Fazlur Rahman (co-leader of the old Taliban) had to be brought on board and give his permission. This looks to me as though the Daily Times is verifying that the Maulana is siding with Musharraf to battle al Qaeda allied Taliban.

If this is accurate, it validates my prediction and if they all hold their nerve, (big if) could spell disaster for al Qaeda wich is running out of places to hide as its' support base grows smaller and smaller, mostly owing to its' own brutishness.

Battlestar Galactica Razor

Conversation on Razor here:

I don't care what they say, last nights episode was awesome.

Spoiler alert

When the old cylon ships showed up and chased Starbuck ino the landing bay and she whipped the ship around and blasted a ship inside the bay, it made me somewhat...emotionally erect, badass.

Almost as good as when they dropped the galactica into the atmosphere and started ejecting fighters during the rescue from the cylon camps last season. And that was one of the coolest things I have ever seen on TV.

And here it is:

Watch this

I dont know if this is awesome or pathetic

Super majority of Americans now think 9/11 inside job or gov let it happen

In the New York Post:

By ANDY SOLTIS

November 24, 2007 -- Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the federal government had warnings about 9/11 but decided to ignore them, a national survey found.

And that's not the only conspiracy theory with a huge number of true believers in the United States.

The poll found that more than one out of three Americans believe Washington is concealing the truth about UFOs and the Kennedy assassination - and most everyone is sure the rise in gas prices is one vast oil-industry conspiracy.

Sixty-two percent of those polled thought it was "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that federal officials turned a blind eye to specific warnings of the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon.

Only 30 percent said the 9/11 theory was "not likely," according to the Scripps Howard/Ohio University poll.

I would love to see the methodology for this "poll". This is utter nonsense. I bet I could go talk to ten people right now and find at the most two who genuinely thought the gov was behind it or "let it happen". Even whack job Bill Maher dogged out these kind of nutters. So did Clinton. The New York Post should be utterly embarrassed to run this poll, it is obviously junk.

I am going to try and find out more about this poll and update later.

BTW, I have said this before but it deserves repeating. I once saw a news piece on polling and how they run polls. This particular one was phone based. They said they had a machine that place calls at random. Completely utterly random with no human intervention. Then they said all they do is give it an area code and it starts dialing.

No problem at all with the fact that a San Fransisco area code will give you a completely different type of responder than say Atlanta or Oklahoma City.

I am guessing that for this poll they gave the machine the area code for Ron Paul's district.

Go visit Atlas Shrugs

I was cruising my favorite blogs looking for stuff to link and found that Atlas Shrugs' entire front page is fascinating. Go have a looksee if you haven't been by lately.

A homage to Chevy Chase's subliminal guy skit

Why is it that the only people I seem to draw to this blog anymore are idiots (Ron Paulers) who have no regard for truth (Ron Paulers) who seem to think the Constitution was written to get one ass hat elected (Ron Paul) who claim to be "conservatives" yet hold no conservative positions other than to add a quote from a federalist to the end of their stupid emails (liberal douche bag morons pretending to be republicans in order to build a Ron Paul base, split him off as an independent for the general election and take republican votes from the republican candidate)? I just don't get it (blind to the troof of 9/11). How can these "normal" (troofers, white supremacists) people be the only ones who bother to come to my useless, crappy, nearly abandoned blog (ripped off - should have been best blog of the year instead of that crappy Ace O'crap blog - jk) just to bug me with their pithy (lunatic, pathetic, insane) emails?

Oh well, I guess I will have to take what I can get (blocking Paulbots' I.P.s and any reference to Ron Paul in comments) when it comes to stupid moron readers (Ron Paulers) and let them have free reign as they spambot the crap out of my comments section (go f%#$ yourselves - sell crazy somewhere else).

More evidence of a coming reallignment in Afghanistan/Pakistan

H/T Larwyn  - Prairie Pundit

Reuters

KABUL (Reuters) - Afghan President Hamid Karzai said on Thursday Taliban insurgent leaders were increasingly contacting him to try to find ways of making peace.

Afghan and Western military leaders and diplomats recognize talks will ultimately have to be held to end the Taliban insurgency which has claimed some 5,000 lives this year alone. But, they say, talks should be held from a position of strength.

"We have had an increasing number of contacts from Taliban from within Afghanistan and from Pakistan," Karzai told a news conference.

"These contacts have especially increased in the past seven or eight months. As a matter of fact only this week, I had more than five or six major contacts, approaches by the leadership of the Taliban trying to find out if they can come back to Afghanistan," he said.

The Taliban are far from being a unified group, NATO commanders caution, and while some leaders may be willing to enter talks, they do not speak for the whole of the hardline Islamist movement.

But talks may be useful to bring over the more moderate elements within the Taliban and divide the insurgency, they say.

"If we are speaking of a centralized authority within the Taliban with whom we can talk for peace that is not there," said Karzai. "We don't know the figure or an office or someone that has contacted us representing the whole Taliban movement.

"We are willing to talk to those Taliban who are not part of al Qaeda or the terrorist network," he said.

Bingo, the "old Taliban" is beginning to align with the Afghan government and turn against the al Qaeda affiliated "young Taliban". The combination of the brutal beating we and allies are giving them, the efforts of the Maulana Fazlur Rahman to pull them over to support Musharraf, and the shear brutality of the New York Times' designated "foreign fighter Taliban" otherwise known as al Qaeda against local Afghans is going to be a nearly unstoppable force.