William Arkin gets it exactly right

I have been pretty critical of Mr Arkin in the past, but I have to say, this article is dead on. Washington Post

Certainly Israel has failed to instantly subdue Hezbollah.  And no doubt in the court of public opinion -- including surprisingly all of these Western mainstream and "expert" voices -- Israel is "losing."

But are they losing militarily?

The missing ingredient here though is how well Israel is doing against Hezbollah.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says Hezbollah has "suffered a heavy blow" and that Hezbollah leadership "fears for its life."

The Israeli Defense Force said Friday that Israeli troops had killed about 200 Hezbollah fighters while Hezbollah was reporting only 35 casualties.

Moreover, Hezbollah's long-range firepower is significantly depleted.  Israeli air strikes and counter-battery fire has destroyed an estimated 1,000 Hezbollah weapons. Hezbollah has also fired more than 2,000 rockets, artillery and mortar rounds, Israeli intelligence estimates.  That means that if the group had 11,500 to 13,000 rockets at the start of the conflict, it might have lost one-third or more of its capability since July 12. 

Israel's shift this weekend to attacks in far eastern Lebanon, to the Golan Heights area, also could indicate that Hezbollah has shifted its rocket firings and activity away from the central areas where Israel was having greater success.

We readily accept that this is a different kind of conflict and Israel is not fighting a conventional foe.  Shouldn't we also then apply different standards to measuring success?

In other words, it is just as much possible that while Israel is losing the P.R. war, and while Israel has made life more difficult for itself through its attacks on Lebanese infrastructure and civilian casualties, it could be seen as otherwise "winning" its military battle.

What he is saying is that even if Israel is losing the PR war, that deosn't make a bit of difference to the fight unless Israeli leadership gives in. They are winning on the ground and will continue to win, unless they give in to world opinion.

Comments

[Sam Pender]

...and the Israelis won't give in.

Besides, world opinion is only rhetoric-words not deeds. No one really wants a cease-fire, but everyone wants to be on record as calling for peace. A Cease-fire means that either Israel has been compelled by the Intl community to stop defending itself and should sit back, hold its fire, and take unlimited rocket attacks from Syrian and Iranian surrogates...
OR
A cease-fire means that an international force has to come in, go to S Lebanon, replace the Israelis, and take on Hezbollah (Syria and Iran). No one wants to join a peace keeping force. Everyone knows this. The Israelis know it. The only people who don't seem to know it are the public-mislead by a media that make a cease-fire sound like a rational idea.