Lot's of buzz today about the truce between al Qaeda allied Taliban and Musharraf (almost all negative). Look at it this way. When they made a deal in 2006 the Pakistani jihadis had the upper hand. They do not now. NATO troops are pushing from the west, even killing al Qaeda leaders in their own villages. The Pakistani military was pushing them hard from the east. All around them, other tribes were aligning with Musharraf. The MMA,the chief jihadi political party was mostly silent about their impending doom indicating the loss of the big political supporters. Afghanistan is lost despite what the media is reporting (more about the media cover-up of NATO success to come).
They were getting their asses kicked.
My bet is that we will see a few al Qaeda scalps turn up in exchange for this cease-fire.
You have to ask, what's in it for the al Qaeda allied Taliban? After an initial successful offensive they were losing ground fast. The leaders are getting killed. The assassination of Bhutto actually reduced their political support instead of making them stronger. Big mistake.
So now, because al Qaeda was pushing them into it, they are getting it from all sides.
Best way out?
Agree to stop supporting al Qaeda and turn over Usama bin Laden or Zawahiri, or at least drive them into the open so we can get them (probably the later). Look for a stunning success to come soon.
My best guess.